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Event dependence in U.S. executions
Frank R Baumgartner1, Janet M Box-Steffensmeier2, Benjamin W Campbell2
1Department of Political Science, UNC-Chapel Hill, 313 Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3265, United States of America.
Plos One
|January 3, 2018
Summary
Judicial executions in the U.S. follow a self-reinforcing pattern, where prior executions increase the likelihood and speed of future executions in a county. This concentration raises concerns about constitutional equal protection.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Sociology
- Law
Background:
- Over 1,400 judicial executions have occurred in the U.S. since 1976.
- Execution patterns are highly concentrated in specific states and counties.
- These patterns suggest self-reinforcing processes influencing event frequency.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically examine the self-reinforcing processes behind the distribution of U.S. judicial executions.
- To determine if execution patterns fit a stretched distribution.
- To test for event-dependence in county-level execution rates.
Main Methods:
- Bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to assess distribution patterns.
- Conditional Frailty Model to test for event-dependence.
- Estimation of monthly execution hazard rates, controlling for covariates.
Main Results:
- Execution patterns in U.S. counties conform to a stretched distribution.
- Prior executions in a county significantly increase the probability and accelerate the timing of subsequent executions.
- A self-reinforcing effect emerges, leading to divergence between high-execution and no-execution counties.
Conclusions:
- The study confirms self-reinforcing dynamics in U.S. capital punishment.
- This concentration and self-perpetuation of executions may conflict with constitutional equal protection principles.
- Findings highlight significant legal and normative implications for the death penalty system.
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