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Event dependence in U.S. executions.

Frank R Baumgartner1, Janet M Box-Steffensmeier2, Benjamin W Campbell2

  • 1Department of Political Science, UNC-Chapel Hill, 313 Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3265, United States of America.

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|January 3, 2018
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Judicial executions in the U.S. follow a self-reinforcing pattern, where prior executions increase the likelihood and speed of future executions in a county. This concentration raises concerns about constitutional equal protection.

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Sociology
  • Law

Background:

  • Over 1,400 judicial executions have occurred in the U.S. since 1976.
  • Execution patterns are highly concentrated in specific states and counties.
  • These patterns suggest self-reinforcing processes influencing event frequency.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically examine the self-reinforcing processes behind the distribution of U.S. judicial executions.
  • To determine if execution patterns fit a stretched distribution.
  • To test for event-dependence in county-level execution rates.

Main Methods:

  • Bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to assess distribution patterns.
  • Conditional Frailty Model to test for event-dependence.
  • Estimation of monthly execution hazard rates, controlling for covariates.

Main Results:

  • Execution patterns in U.S. counties conform to a stretched distribution.
  • Prior executions in a county significantly increase the probability and accelerate the timing of subsequent executions.
  • A self-reinforcing effect emerges, leading to divergence between high-execution and no-execution counties.

Conclusions:

  • The study confirms self-reinforcing dynamics in U.S. capital punishment.
  • This concentration and self-perpetuation of executions may conflict with constitutional equal protection principles.
  • Findings highlight significant legal and normative implications for the death penalty system.