Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling

Area of Science:

• Vector ecology
• Population dynamics modeling
• Entomological surveillance

Background:

• Aedes aegypti is a significant vector for arboviruses.
• Understanding its population dynamics is crucial for disease control.
• Long-term entomological data provides valuable insights.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate theoretical population dynamics models for Aedes aegypti.
• To estimate the carrying capacity (K) of Aedes aegypti at city and neighborhood levels.
• To assess the influence of environmental factors and surveillance methods on model fit.

Main Methods:

• Utilized weekly adult mosquito abundance data from sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from 2008-2011 in Vitória, Brazil.
• Estimated carrying capacity (K) as the sole free parameter in population dynamics models.
• Incorporated temperature as a driver for city-level analysis and examined neighborhood-level spatial heterogeneity.

Main Results:

• The model incorporating temperature effectively captured seasonal Aedes aegypti abundance patterns at the city level.
• Significant spatial variation in estimated carrying capacity was observed across neighborhoods.
• Environmental variables linked to poor infrastructure showed a weak association with local carrying capacity.
• Model goodness-of-fit was positively correlated with the number of sticky traps used.

Conclusions:

• Aedes aegypti carrying capacity exhibits spatial heterogeneity influenced by environmental factors.
• Temperature is a key driver of seasonal mosquito abundance.
• A minimum of 16 sticky traps per neighborhood is recommended for reliable entomological surveillance and model validation.