A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical...

Area of Science:

• Engineering
• Cybersecurity
• Risk Management

Background:

• Modern infrastructures rely heavily on electronic systems, increasing vulnerability to electromagnetic interference (EMI).
• Both natural phenomena and malicious actors can generate disruptive electromagnetic disturbances.
• Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) poses a significant threat to the integrity and functionality of electronic systems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying potential IEMI attacks on distribution network infrastructures.
• To adapt traditional risk assessment models for situations lacking historical IEMI occurrence data.
• To enhance decision-making for countermeasures against IEMI threats.

Main Methods:

• Modified the definition of risk from triplets (scenario, probability, consequence) to quadruplets (scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, consequence).
• Replaced probability with 'resource requirements' (equipment needed) and 'plausibility' (attacker motivation, knowledge, resources).
• Applied the concept of intrusion areas and classified electromagnetic source technology attributes to identify worst-case scenarios.

Main Results:

• Identified worst-case IEMI attack scenarios based on varying attacker resources.
• Ranked scenarios by plausibility and consequence to prioritize countermeasures.
• Demonstrated the framework's application with a hypothetical water distribution network example.

Conclusions:

• A systems-based risk assessment, incorporating resource requirements and plausibility, is more effective than probabilistic approaches for IEMI threat analysis.
• The proposed framework provides valuable decision support for developing effective countermeasures against IEMI attacks.
• The methodology is adaptable to various distribution network infrastructures.