Frequent implementation of interventions may increase HIV infections among MSM in China

Intervention measures among men who have sex with men (MSM) are usually designed to reduce the frequency of high risk behaviors (within-community level), but unfortunately may change the contact network and consequently increase the opportunity for them to have sex with new partners (between-community level). A multi-community periodic model on complex network is proposed to study the two-side effects of interventions on HIV transmission among MSM in China, in which the wanning process of the impacts of interventions are modelled. The basic reproduction number for the multi-community periodic system is defined and calculated numerically. Based on the number of annual reported HIV/AIDS cases among MSM in China, the unknown parameters are estimated by using MCMC method and the basic reproduction number is estimated as 3.56 (95%CI [3.556, 3.568]). Our results show that strong randomness of the community-connection networks leads to more new infections and more HIV/AIDS cases. Moreover, main conclusion indicates that implementation of interventions may induce more new infections, depending on relative level of between- and within-community impacts, and the frequency of implementation of interventions. The findings can help to guide the policy maker to choose the appropriate intervention measures, and to implement the interventions with proper frequency.