Dynamical Formation of Kerr Black Holes with Synchronized Hair: An Analytic Model

East and Pretorius have successfully evolved, using fully nonlinear numerical simulations, the superradiant instability of the Kerr black hole (BH) triggered by a massive, complex vector field. Evolutions terminate in stationary states of a vector field condensate synchronized with a rotating BH horizon. We show that these end points are fundamental states of Kerr BHs with synchronized Proca hair. Motivated by the "experimental data" from these simulations, we suggest a universal (i.e., field-spin independent), analytic model for the subset of BHs with synchronized hair that possess a quasi-Kerr horizon, applicable in the weak hair regime. Comparing this model with fully nonlinear numerical solutions of BHs with a synchronized scalar or Proca hair, we show that the model is accurate for hairy BHs that may emerge dynamically from superradiance, whose domain we identify.