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Conditionals and inferential connections: A hypothetical inferential theory.

Igor Douven¹, Shira Elqayam², Henrik Singmann³

¹SND/CNRS/Sorbonne University, France.

Cognitive Psychology

|January 13, 2018

Summary

People intuitively link conditional statements, like "if A, then B," to a relevant connection between A and B. This study shows that this relevance is key to how we evaluate conditional statements.

Keywords:

Belief bias Conditionals Dual processing Inferential semantics Relevance Satisficing

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Psychology
Philosophy of Mind
Linguistics

Background:

Conditional statements are fundamental to reasoning.
Intuition suggests a connection is necessary for a conditional to be true.
Previous theories lack a unified psychological explanation for this intuition.

Purpose of the Study:

To formulate and test a new psychological theory explaining the intuition behind conditional truth.
To propose that relevance-driven, bounded inference underlies this intuition.
To investigate the psychological mechanisms of conditional evaluation.

Main Methods:

Developed a novel experimental paradigm using soritical series of objects (colored patches, spheres).
Participants evaluated conditionals with non-causal inferential connections.
Analyzed response patterns for sensitivity to inference strength and consequent position.

Main Results:

Observed a unique response pattern sensitive to inference strength and consequent position, similar to belief bias.
Demonstrated that guaranteed relevance can be suppressed, leading to defective conditional evaluations.
Showed that inference strength partially explains the observed response patterns.

Conclusions:

The findings support a theory of "relevant inference" and "bounded inference."
Conditional evaluation involves dual processing characteristics of inferential connections.
Psychological relevance plays a crucial role in judging the truth of conditional statements.