Predictors of remission from probable depression among Hong Kong adolescents - A large-scale longitudinal study

This study investigated the incidence of remission from probable depression among adolescents in Hong Kong. Remissions were defined as having Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CESD) scores changed from ≥16 at baseline to <16 over the 12-month follow-up period. The study tested the predictors of remissions, including perceived changes in family support, self-efficacy, self-esteem, positive affect, negative events, social anxiety, and loneliness.

The study surveyed 9666 secondary school students and identified 5487 (57%) students with probable depression in Hong Kong. A questionnaire assessing the levels of the aforementioned variables was completed at baseline and at the 12-month follow-up.

Among participants with probable depression at baseline, 23.2% remitted from depression at follow-up. Remissions were more common among males than females. Univariate logistic regression showed that perceived changes in all the aforementioned variables significantly predicted remission for both males and females. The same is true for most of these variables when they were entered together into multiple logistic regression models (with and without controlling for baseline CESD scores), except for family support in the female model and self-efficacy in both male and female models.

Limitations include potential self-report bias and only one follow-up observation over time. The design treats cases of probable mild to severe depression as a single group (CESD≥16).

The findings are potentially useful for designing and guiding related intervention programs. Results highlight the importance of long-term follow-up of those screened as probable depression to understand the course of changes in levels of depression.