Estimation of parameters for plasma glucose regulation in type-2 diabetics in presence of meal

In this study, the authors propose a methodology for the estimation of glucose masses in stomach (both in solid and liquid forms), intestine, plasma and tissue; insulin masses in portal vein, liver, plasma and interstitial fluid using only plasma glucose measurement. The proposed methodology fuses glucose-insulin homoeostasis model (in the presence of meal intake) and plasma glucose measurement with a Bayesian non-linear filter. Uncertainty of the model over individual variations has been incorporated by adding process noise to the homoeostasis model. The estimation is carried out over 24 h for the healthy people as well as a type II diabetes mellitus patients. In simulation, the estimator follows the truth accurately for both the cases. Moreover, the performances of two non-linear filters, namely the unscented Kalman filter (KF) and cubature quadrature KF are compared in terms of root mean square error. The proposed methodology will be helpful in future to: (i) observe a patient's insulin-glucose profile, (ii) calculate drug dose for any hyperglycaemic patients and (iii) develop a closed-loop controller for automated insulin delivery system.