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Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

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Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems is enhanced by a new early warning signal: critical attractor growth. This method identifies impending global bifurcations, improving predictions for climate and neural models.

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Area of Science:

  • Complex Systems Science
  • Dynamical Systems Theory
  • Computational Neuroscience

Background:

  • Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems is crucial across scientific fields.
  • Existing early warning signals primarily address local bifurcations and non-bifurcation transitions.
  • A gap exists in predicting global bifurcations, particularly interior crises in excitable systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and validate a novel early warning signal for impending global bifurcations.
  • To demonstrate the applicability of this signal in diverse complex systems.
  • To extend the predictability of transitions in dynamical systems.

Main Methods:

  • Investigated characteristic scaling behavior termed 'critical attractor growth'.
  • Applied the early warning signal to a conceptual climate model.
  • Tested the signal in a model of coupled neurons exhibiting extreme events.

Main Results:

  • Observed critical attractor growth as a reliable indicator of impending interior crises.
  • Demonstrated this phenomenon in both chaotic and strange-nonchaotic attractors.
  • Validated the signal's effectiveness in climate and neural network models.

Conclusions:

  • Critical attractor growth is a novel and effective early warning signal for interior crises.
  • This finding expands the range of predictable transitions in dynamical systems.
  • The signal holds promise for predicting extreme events in complex systems.