Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Seasonal crop yield forecasting is crucial for market stability, mitigating socio-economic impacts of crop losses, and ensuring food security.
• Climate variability and extreme weather significantly influence agricultural production, necessitating early prediction for adaptation.
• Current seasonal climate forecasts have limited utility in Europe for agricultural decisions due to poor surface variable prediction skill.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a combined stress index (CSI) for predicting European maize yield.
• To assess the utility of land-surface initialized seasonal climate forecasts for maize yield prediction in Europe.

Main Methods:

• Developed a combined stress index (CSI) integrating drought and heat stress during summer.
• Utilized observed climate data to evaluate the CSI's ability to explain inter-annual maize yield variability.
• Employed land-surface initialized seasonal climate forecasts and compared their skill against climatological initializations for predicting the CSI.

Main Results:

• The CSI explained approximately 53% of the inter-annual maize yield variability under observed climate conditions.
• The CSI effectively highlighted the impact of concurrent heat and drought events on recent maize yield anomalies.
• Land-surface initialized seasonal climate forecasts demonstrated improved, marginally useful skill in predicting the CSI over climatological initialization in several European regions.

Conclusions:

• A combined stress index (CSI) offers a valuable tool for predicting European maize yield by integrating drought and heat stress.
• Land-surface initialization significantly enhances the skill of seasonal climate forecasts for predicting maize yield in key European agricultural areas.
• Improved seasonal climate forecasting holds potential for better agricultural decision-making and adaptation strategies in Europe.