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Temperature-driven population abundance model for Culex pipiens and Culex restuans (Diptera: Culicidae)
Don Yu1, Neal Madras1, Huaiping Zhu1
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Abstract:
We develop a temperature-driven abundance model for West Nile virus (WNV) vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans. Temperature-dependent response functions for mosquito development, mortality, and diapause were formulated based on results from available laboratory and field studies. Numerical results compared to observed mosquito trap counts from 2004-2016 demonstrate the ability of our model to predict the observed trend of the mosquito population over a single season in the Peel Region, Ontario. The model has potential to be used as a real-time mosquito abundance forecasting tool with applications in mosquito control programs.
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