The Virtual Anemia Trial: An Assessment of Model-Based In Silico Clinical Trials of Anemia Treatment Algorithms in...

In silico approaches have been proposed as a novel strategy to increase the repertoire of clinical trial designs. Realistic simulations of clinical trials can provide valuable information regarding safety and limitations of treatment protocols and have been shown to assist in the cost-effective planning of clinical studies. In this report, we present a blueprint for the stepwise integration of internal, external, and ecological validity considerations in virtual clinical trials (VCTs). We exemplify this approach in the context of a model-based in silico clinical trial aimed at anemia treatment in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). Hemoglobin levels and subsequent anemia treatment were simulated on a per patient level over the course of a year and compared to real-life clinical data of 79,426 patients undergoing HD. The novel strategies presented here, aimed to improve external and ecological validity of a VCT, significantly increased the predictive power of the discussed in silico trial.