A modified Essen Stroke Risk Score for predicting recurrent ischemic stroke at one year

Area of Science:

• Neurology
• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• The Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) is a common tool for predicting recurrent ischemic stroke.
• However, the original ESRS may lack sufficient accuracy for early recurrence prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a modified ESRS tailored for predicting one-year recurrent ischemic stroke risk in a Chinese population.
• To compare the predictive performance of the modified ESRS against the original ESRS.

Main Methods:

• A cohort of 803 patients with ischemic stroke was analyzed.
• Univariate analysis and forward stepwise logistic regression identified independent risk factors.
• A modified ESRS was constructed based on identified predictors and β-coefficients.
• Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare model performance.

Main Results:

• Hypertension duration, diabetes duration, large artery atherosclerosis, and history of TIA/IS were significant predictors.
• The modified ESRS demonstrated superior predictive ability (AUC=0.70) compared to the original ESRS (AUC=0.58).
• The modified ESRS showed a significant improvement in predicting one-year recurrent ischemic stroke.

Conclusions:

• The modified ESRS significantly enhances the prediction of one-year recurrent ischemic stroke in the Chinese population.
• This refined scoring system offers improved accuracy over the original ESRS for this specific demographic.