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Improving generation length estimates for the IUCN Red List.

Robert S C Cooke1,2, Tania C Gilbert1, Philip Riordan1

  • 1Marwell Wildlife, Thompson's Lane, Colden Common, Winchester, Hampshire, United Kingdom.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Accurate generation length estimation for the IUCN Red List is improved by separating wild and captive data. Body-mass and phylogeny are key predictors, with Phylogenetic Eigenvector Map (PEM) or binning approaches recommended for missing data.

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Area of Science:

  • Conservation Biology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Quantitative Biology

Background:

  • The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List uses generation length to assess extinction risk, but accurate estimation is challenging.
  • Generation length is a crucial time-scalar for life-history analyses and conservation status assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To advance the estimation of generation length for species, particularly for the IUCN Red List.
  • To investigate the influence of body-mass (allometry) and phylogeny on generation length within a Phylogenetic Eigenvector Map (PEM) framework.
  • To evaluate the predictive power of PEM and binning approaches for extrapolating generation length to species with missing data.

Main Methods:

  • Calculated or predicted generation length for 86 antelope species using the Rspan approach.
  • Employed a Phylogenetic Eigenvector Map (PEM) framework to assess the predictive importance of body-mass and phylogeny.
  • Utilized a leave-one-out cross-validation to evaluate the predictive accuracy of PEM and two binning methods.

Main Results:

  • Captive and wild longevity data are not equivalent and should be analyzed separately.
  • Body-mass explained 64% and phylogeny 36% of the variance in generation length.
  • Both the PEM and a binning approach combining taxonomic rank and body-mass demonstrated strong predictive power.

Conclusions:

  • Advise separating captive and wild longevity data for more accurate generation length estimation.
  • Recommend using body-mass and phylogeny in combination, preferably via PEM or a suitable binning approach, to extrapolate generation length.
  • Provide a transparent and transferable workflow to enhance generation length calculations for the IUCN Red List.