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A Modeling and Simulation Method for Preliminary Design of an Electro-Variable Displacement Pump
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Disruption, not displacement: Environmental variability and temporary migration in Bangladesh
Maia A Call1, Clark Gray2, Mohammad Yunus3
1UNC Department of Geography, Carolina Hall, CB #3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220.
Global Environmental Change : Human and Policy Dimensions
|January 30, 2018
Summary
Climate change impacts temporary migration differently. While flooding causes short-term declines, optimal rain and high temperatures can increase migration for up to two years, challenging previous assumptions.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Demography
- Climate Change Research
Background:
- Global climate change is a significant driver of mass migration.
- The 'environmental refugee' hypothesis oversimplifies the complex relationship between environmental factors and human migration.
- Understanding temporary migration patterns under changing environmental conditions is crucial but understudied.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the predictive relationship between temperature, precipitation, flooding, and temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh.
- To analyze the short-term and long-term effects of environmental variability on migration decisions.
- To challenge the assumption that environmental extremes consistently increase migration.
Main Methods:
- Utilized high-frequency demographic surveillance data from Matlab, Bangladesh.
- Employed a discrete-time event history analysis approach.
- Incorporated sociodemographic and contextual controls to refine the analysis.
Main Results:
- Flooding events initially decrease migration, but populations return to baseline levels quickly.
- Optimal precipitation and high temperatures demonstrate sustained positive effects on temporary migration, lasting one to two years.
- Environmental factors do not consistently increase temporary migration, contrary to common assumptions.
Conclusions:
- Household livelihood strategies and environmental variability play a key role in migration decisions.
- The impact of climate change on migration is nuanced, varying by environmental factor and duration.
- Future research should consider diverse coping mechanisms in environmental migration studies.
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