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Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals
Ayman Elshkaki1, T E Graedel1, Luca Ciacci1,2
1Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies , Yale University , New Haven , Connecticut 06511 , United States.
Environmental Science & Technology
|January 31, 2018
Summary
Global metal demand is projected to double or triple by 2050, particularly under equitable development scenarios. Recycling alone cannot meet future needs, potentially straining supplies of key metals and increasing energy demand.
Area of Science:
- Earth and Environmental Sciences
- Materials Science
- Economics
Background:
- Increasing global metal consumption raises concerns about future supply sufficiency.
- Historical and current data on seven major metals (iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, lead) are crucial for analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under various global development scenarios.
- To compare projected demands with potential midcentury supply assessments.
- To identify critical resource constraints and inform policy.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical and current usage data for seven major metals.
- Development of multiple scenarios for global development patterns.
- Modeling of future metal demand and comparison with supply estimates.
Main Results:
- Projected doubling or tripling of demand for all seven metals by midcentury.
- Highest demand increases linked to scenarios promoting equitable global development.
- Recycling meets only a small fraction of projected future demand.
- Potential supply shortfalls for copper, zinc, and lead by midcentury under current usage patterns.
- Increased metal demand necessitates 21-37% rise in global energy demand.
Conclusions:
- Significant technological advancements and governmental policies are essential to manage future metal demand and supply.
- Equitable global development scenarios, while desirable, present the greatest challenge for metal resource management.
- Without proactive measures, limited metal supply could constrain regional and global development.
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