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Resilience management during large-scale epidemic outbreaks.

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Epidemics impact society beyond individual risk. A new resilience framework integrates disease spread and societal disruption for better epidemic management and faster recovery.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Societal Resilience
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Assessing epidemic impact solely on individual risk is insufficient and costly.
  • Epidemics disrupt economic, infrastructural, and service functions, affecting societal recovery speed.
  • Quantifying epidemic effects requires considering broader societal dimensions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend the concept of resilience for characterizing epidemics in structured populations.
  • To define system-wide critical functionality by combining individual disease risk and societal disruption.
  • To provide a nuanced approach for optimizing epidemic containment and mitigation strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a resilience assessment framework integrating individual risk (disease attack rate) and system disruption (human mobility deterioration).
  • Utilized both conceptual and data-driven models to study epidemic impacts.
  • Analyzed the interplay between containment interventions and societal recovery.

Main Results:

  • Integrated consideration of individual risks and societal disruptions offers a comprehensive view of epidemic impact.
  • Containment interventions focused solely on risk reduction can negatively impact societal recovery.
  • The resilience framework provides insights into optimizing epidemic management.

Conclusions:

  • A resilience-based approach is crucial for understanding and managing large-scale epidemics.
  • Optimizing containment requires balancing disease risk reduction with societal function preservation.
  • This framework enhances epidemic preparedness and response strategies.