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How many doctors should we train for Sri Lanka? System dynamics modelling for training needs
1Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka. dileepdenta@yahoo.com
The Ceylon Medical Journal
|February 3, 2018
Summary
Sri Lanka has a current doctor shortage, but supply is projected to meet demand by 2025/26. Opening new medical schools is not urgently needed, but regular health workforce analysis is recommended.
Area of Science:
- Health economics
- Health workforce planning
- System dynamics modeling
Background:
- Sri Lanka has achieved significant health gains relative to its expenditure.
- Approximately 1450 doctors join the health system annually.
- Debate exists regarding the necessity of new medical schools to address perceived doctor shortages.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the required number of doctors for Sri Lanka.
- To forecast future doctor supply and demand dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized system dynamics, a methodology for analyzing complex feedback systems.
- Developed and simulated two sub-models: "need" and "supply" for a 15-year period (2017-2032).
Main Results:
- The current doctor-to-population ratio is 1:671, with 91% of the need met.
- A doctor shortage exists presently, but supply is expected to meet demand by 2025/26.
- Increasing doctor numbers excessively could lead to an oversupply later in the decade.
Conclusions:
- There is no immediate need to establish new medical schools.
- Regular, comprehensive health workforce analyses (every 5 years) are crucial for informed decision-making on doctor training numbers.
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