Predictors of Failure to Rescue After Esophagectomy

Failure to rescue (FTR), defined as death after a major complication, is a metric increasingly being used to assess quality of care. Risk factors associated with FTR after esophagectomy have not been previously studied.

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for patients who underwent esophagectomy with gastric conduit between 2010 and 2014. Patients with at least one major postoperative complication were grouped according to inhospital mortality (FTR group) and survival to discharge (SUR group). A stepwise logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of FTR.

A total of 1,730 patients comprised the study group, with 102 (5.9%) in the FTR group and 1,628 (94.1%) in the SUR group. The FTR patients were older (69.0 versus 64.0 years, p < 0.0001) compared with the SUR patients. There were no differences in sex, body mass index, preoperative weight loss, smoking status, operation type, or surgeon specialty between the two groups. Age greater than 75 years (adjusted odds ratio 2.68, p < 0.0001), black race (adjusted odds ratio 2.75, p = 0.001), American Society of Anesthesiologists class 4 or 5 (adjusted odds ratio 1.82, p = 0.02), and the occurrence of pneumonia, respiratory failure, acute renal failure, sepsis, or acute myocardial infarction were predictive of FTR based on multivariable logistic regression.

Nearly 6% of patients who have a major complication after esophagectomy do not survive to discharge. Age greater than 75 years, black race, American Society of Anesthesiologists class 4 or 5, and complications related to major infection or organ failure predict FTR. Further research is necessary to investigate how these factors affect survival after complications in order to improve rescue efforts.