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Related Concept Videos

Expected Value01:15

Expected Value

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The expected value is known as the "long-term" average or mean. This means that over the long term of experimenting over and over, you would expect this average. The expected average is represented by the symbol μ. It is calculated as follows:
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Line Loss01:10

Line Loss

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The different configurations of source-load connections include wye (star) and delta connections. The relationship between line and phase voltages and currents varies depending on the configuration. When the source is supplying power, it is transmitted through the wires to the load, and during this transmission, some power is absorbed by the wires, leading to line loss.
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Determination of Expected Frequency01:08

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Suppose one wants to test independence between the two variables of a contingency table. The values in the table constitute the observed frequencies of the dataset. But how does one determine the expected frequency of the dataset? One of the important assumptions is that the two variables are independent, which means the variables do not influence each other. For independent variables, the statistical probability of any event involving both variables is calculated by multiplying the individual...
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Reducing Line Loss01:18

Reducing Line Loss

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In a three-phase circuit, line loss is an indicator of energy dissipated as heat due to the resistance of transmission lines. To address this, incorporating transformers into the system—a step-up transformer at the source and a step-down transformer at the load—is a strategic solution. Two three-phase transformers are introduced to improve this.
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Relative Risk01:12

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Relative risk (RR) is a statistical measure commonly used in epidemiology to compare the likelihood of a particular event occurring between two groups. This metric is important for evaluating the relationship between exposure to a specific risk factor and the probability of a particular outcome. It plays a crucial role in medical research, public health studies, and risk assessment. Relative risk quantifies how much more (or less) likely an event is to occur in an exposed group compared to an...
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Major Losses in Pipes01:28

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When a fluid flows through a pipe, it experiences energy losses due to frictional resistance along the pipe walls, known as major losses. These energy losses result in a pressure drop, which varies based on the flow conditions — whether laminar or turbulent — and the specific physical properties of the fluid and pipe.
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Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

Victoria Y Fan1, Dean T Jamison2, Lawrence H Summers3

  • 1Office of Public Health Studies, Myron B Thompson School of Social Work, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 1960 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States of America (USA).

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Investing in pandemic preparedness is crucial. Recent studies estimate annual global losses from pandemics at $500 billion, including the economic value of lives lost, highlighting the severe economic impact of infectious disease outbreaks.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Global Health Economics
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Significant unmet need for increased investment in epidemic and pandemic preparedness.
  • Previous economic loss estimates focused on national income, excluding the value of lives lost.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To re-evaluate pandemic preparedness investment by incorporating the economic valuation of lives lost.
  • To estimate the total economic impact of future pandemics, specifically influenza.

Main Methods:

  • Parametrization of an exceedance probability function for global influenza pandemics.
  • Calculation of expected annual losses, including mortality-related costs.

Main Results:

  • Estimated 720,000 influenza pandemic-related deaths annually.
  • Estimated annual global economic losses of $500 billion (0.6% of global income).
  • Losses as a percentage of national income vary by country income level, higher in lower-middle-income countries.

Conclusions:

  • Pandemic preparedness requires greater financial investment due to substantial economic and mortality risks.
  • Rare, severe influenza pandemic events drive the majority of estimated losses.
  • Economic impact is significant across all income levels, disproportionately affecting lower-middle-income nations.