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Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?
Victoria Y Fan1, Dean T Jamison2, Lawrence H Summers3
1Office of Public Health Studies, Myron B Thompson School of Social Work, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 1960 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States of America (USA).
Bulletin of the World Health Organization
|February 7, 2018
Summary
Investing in pandemic preparedness is crucial. Recent studies estimate annual global losses from pandemics at $500 billion, including the economic value of lives lost, highlighting the severe economic impact of infectious disease outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Global Health Economics
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Significant unmet need for increased investment in epidemic and pandemic preparedness.
- Previous economic loss estimates focused on national income, excluding the value of lives lost.
Purpose of the Study:
- To re-evaluate pandemic preparedness investment by incorporating the economic valuation of lives lost.
- To estimate the total economic impact of future pandemics, specifically influenza.
Main Methods:
- Parametrization of an exceedance probability function for global influenza pandemics.
- Calculation of expected annual losses, including mortality-related costs.
Main Results:
- Estimated 720,000 influenza pandemic-related deaths annually.
- Estimated annual global economic losses of $500 billion (0.6% of global income).
- Losses as a percentage of national income vary by country income level, higher in lower-middle-income countries.
Conclusions:
- Pandemic preparedness requires greater financial investment due to substantial economic and mortality risks.
- Rare, severe influenza pandemic events drive the majority of estimated losses.
- Economic impact is significant across all income levels, disproportionately affecting lower-middle-income nations.
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