Predicting Long-Term Stability of Precise Oscillators under Influence of Frequency Drift

High-performance oscillators, atomic clocks for instance, are important in modern industries, finance and scientific research. In this paper, the authors study the estimation and prediction of long-term stability based on convex optimization techniques and compressive sensing. To take frequency drift into account, its influence on Allan and modified Allan variances is formulated. Meanwhile, expressions for the expectation and variance of discrete-time Hadamard variance are derived. Methods that reduce the computational complexity of these expressions are also introduced. Tests against GPS precise clock data show that the method can correctly predict one-week frequency stability from 14-day measured data.