Prevalence of incidental clinically relevant pancreatic cysts at diagnosis based on current guidelines

Most pancreatic cysts (PCs) found incidentally by CT and MRI scans might not be clinically important according to the Fukuoka guidelines, the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) guidelines and European guidelines.

To determine and compare the prevalence of incidental clinically important PCs (CIPCs).

Abdominal contrast-enhanced CT or MRI scans performed during a one-year period were retrospectively reviewed to identify incidental PCs. CIPCs were defined as those cysts that would be capable of triggering further evaluation with endoscopic ultrasound, immediate surveillance (within 3-6 months) and/or surgery. Prevalence was calculated as the number of patients with CIPCs per 100 subjects imaged (%).

Sixty patients (mean age 70±14 years) out of 565 were found to have incidental PCs, representing a prevalence of 8.7% (95% CI 6.3-11.5) in CT scans and 27.5% (95% CI 16-41) in MRI scans. Seven patients (11.6%, 95% CI 5-22) had CIPCs based on size ≥ 30mm (n=5), size ≥ 30mm and pancreatic duct (PD) dilation (n=1) and PD dilation and presence of solid component (n=1). Based on the Fukuoka guidelines, the prevalence of CIPCs was 1.2% (95% CI 0.4-2.5) in CT scans (6/507) and 1.7% (95% CI 0.1-9) in MRI scans (1/58). Based on the AGA and European guidelines, the prevalence of CIPCs was 0.2% (95% CI 0.1-1) in CT scans (1/507) and 1.7% (95% CI 0.1-9) in MRI scans (1/58). Patients with PCs initially classified as "AGA- or European-positive" had a higher surgical probability and this decision was taken earlier in the follow-up.

In our cohort, the prevalence of important incidental pancreatic cysts was not negligible at around 1% according to current guidelines.