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Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

Erwan Monier1, Sergey Paltsev2, Andrei Sokolov3

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Estimating climate change impacts requires integrated modeling frameworks. This study proposes a geospatially resolved approach for more consistent and policy-responsive climate impact assessments.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Climate Change Economics
  • Integrated Assessment Modeling

Background:

  • Current climate impact assessments face challenges with damage functions and standardized scenarios.
  • Large-scale, multi-model comparisons can lead to inconsistent estimates and lack policy responsiveness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and demonstrate an integrated modeling framework for enhanced climate impact analysis.
  • To shift towards self-consistent modeling for more reliable and adaptable climate impact assessments.
  • To conduct a multi-sectoral assessment responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Main Methods:

  • Integrating a geospatially resolved physical impact representation into a coupled human-Earth system model.
  • Developing a self-consistent integrated modeling framework for climate impact assessment.
  • Conducting multi-sectoral impact assessments using consistent, integrated economic and climate scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed integrated modeling framework.
  • Provided a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under novel scenarios.
  • Showcased a modeling approach responsive to policy and business needs.

Conclusions:

  • A self-consistent, integrated modeling framework offers a more robust approach to climate impact assessment.
  • Geospatially resolved physical impacts enhance the accuracy and utility of climate change projections.
  • This framework supports adaptive strategies for climate change mitigation and economic planning.