Epidemiological characteristics of malaria from control to elimination in Hubei Province, China, 2005-2016

Hubei Province, China, has been operating a malaria elimination programme. This study aimed at investigating the epidemiologic characteristics of malaria in Hubei Province (2005-2016) to plan resource allocation for malaria elimination.

Data on all malaria cases from 2005 to 2016 in all counties of Hubei Province were extracted from a web-based reporting system. The numbers of indigenous and imported cases during the disease control (2005-2010) and elimination (2011-2016) stages, as well as their spatiotemporal distribution, were compared.

A total of 8109 malaria cases were reported from 2005 to 2016 (7270 and 839 cases during the control and elimination stages, respectively). Between 2005 and 2010, indigenous malaria cases comprised the majority of total cases (7114/7270; 97.9%), and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases accounted for most malaria cases (5572/7270; 76.6%). No indigenous malaria cases have been reported in Hubei Province since 2013. Imported malaria cases showed a gradually increasing trend from 2011 to 2016, Plasmodium falciparum was the predominant species in these cases, and the number of counties with imported cases increased from 4 in 2005 to 47 in 2016. During the control and elimination stages, the most likely spatial clusters for indigenous cases included 13 and 11 counties, respectively. However, the cluster of indigenous malaria cases has not been identified since September 2011. For imported cases, the most likely cluster and three secondary clusters during both stages were identified.

Hubei Province has made significant achievements in controlling and eliminating malaria; however, the region now faces some challenges associated with the increasing number and distribution of imported malaria cases. Priorities for malaria elimination should include better management of imported malaria cases, prevention of secondary malaria transmission, and ensuring the sustainability of malaria surveillance.