Estimating road traffic injuries in Jinja district, Uganda, using the capture-recapture method

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Injury Prevention

Background:

• Road traffic injuries (RTIs) represent a critical public health issue, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
• Official data from police and hospital registries often underestimate the true burden of RTIs due to under-reporting.
• Accurate data is essential for effective injury prevention strategies and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the true number of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in a specific region.
• To quantify the extent of under-reporting by traffic police and hospital registries.
• To assess the reliability of existing data sources for RTIs.

Main Methods:

• A two-source capture-recapture method was employed using data from police and hospital registries.
• Seven matching variables were utilized: sex, date, place, time, day of crash, and road user type.
• Statistical analysis was performed to estimate the total number of RTIs and the coverage of each data source.

Main Results:

• Police independently reported 46 RTIs, while hospitals reported 206 RTIs.
• The capture-recapture analysis estimated a total of 313 RTIs (95% CI 273-343).
• Police registries captured only 14.4% and hospital registries captured 60.4% of the estimated RTIs, indicating substantial under-reporting by both sources.

Conclusions:

• Neither police nor hospital data alone accurately reflect the true incidence of road traffic injuries.
• The findings underscore the need to strengthen and integrate both police and hospital data collection systems.
• Improving data accuracy is crucial for developing effective road safety interventions and policies in LMICs.