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Why is life expectancy in England and Wales 'stalling'?
Lucinda Hiam1, Dominic Harrison2, Martin McKee1
1London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, ECOHOST, London, UK.
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
|February 22, 2018
Summary
Life expectancy improvement in England and Wales has slowed, particularly for older women. This trend, potentially linked to austerity, necessitates an independent inquiry into its causes and solutions.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Demography
- Gerontology
Background:
- Recent analyses indicate a significant slowdown in life expectancy improvements in England and Wales.
- This trend is more pronounced at older ages and may even represent a reversal.
Purpose of the Study:
- To review evidence on changing life expectancy trends.
- To quantify the gap between current life expectancy and projected trends.
- To explore potential causes, including austerity policies.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of independent epidemiological and actuarial data.
- Estimation of the deficit in life expectancy compared to historical trends.
- Review of evidence linking policy changes to demographic shifts.
Main Results:
- A marked slowdown in life expectancy improvement, especially for older women.
- At age 85, life expectancy is 0.34 years lower for women and 0.23 years for men than projected.
- Evidence suggests recent austerity policies may be a contributing factor.
Conclusions:
- The observed changes in life expectancy are unlikely to be a temporary fluctuation.
- Austerity policies are a plausible partial explanation for the demographic shifts.
- An independent inquiry is urgently needed to investigate the phenomenon and recommend interventions.