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Unordered Monotonicity.
James J Heckman1, Rodrigo Pinto2
1Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637.
Summary
This study introduces unordered monotonicity, a new condition for analyzing treatment effects in complex discrete choice models. It simplifies identifying counterfactuals and treatment effects, even with multiple treatments and heterogeneous agents.
Area of Science:
- Econometrics
- Discrete Choice Modeling
- Causal Inference
Background:
- Identifying counterfactuals and treatment effects is crucial in econometrics.
- Unordered discrete choice models present unique challenges due to multiple treatment options and heterogeneous agents.
- Existing methods often struggle with the complexity of these models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To define and analyze a novel monotonicity condition for unordered discrete choice models.
- To establish conditions under which this new monotonicity property arises from agent behavior.
- To advance the identification of counterfactuals and treatment effects in complex settings.
Main Methods:
- Definition and analysis of a new 'unordered monotonicity' condition.
- Leveraging properties of binary matrices for theoretical derivations.
- Investigating the link between choice behavior and the proposed monotonicity condition.
- Characterizing instrumental variable (IV) estimators as solutions to discrete mixture problems.
Main Results:
- The paper introduces and defines 'unordered monotonicity'.
- This condition is shown to be equivalent to additive separability in treatment choice equations.
- Properties of binary matrices are developed and utilized to prove these results.
- Conditions for unordered monotonicity arising from choice behavior are investigated.
Conclusions:
- Unordered monotonicity provides a powerful tool for identifying counterfactuals and treatment effects in complex discrete choice models.
- The findings offer new theoretical insights into the structure of these models and the behavior of agents.
- The characterization of IV estimators offers a practical approach for empirical applications.
Keywords:
Binary MatricesC93Discrete ChoiceDiscrete MixturesGeneralized Roy ModelI21IdentificationInstrumental VariablesJ15MonotonicityRevealed PreferenceSelection BiasV16
