Spatiotemporal analysis of PM_2.5 and pancreatic cancer mortality in China

Previous studies have reported that the development of pancreatic cancer (PC) may be associated with environment pollution. But the relationship between ambient air pollution and PC remains unclear.

This study aimed to examine the association between PC mortality and exposure of fine particular matter.

We used PC mortality data from 103 continuous points in national Disease Surveillance Point system from 1991 to 2009 in China. The annual concentrations of PM_2.5 at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for each points were estimated based on the context of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. A spatial age-period-cohort model was used to examine the relative risks of PC mortality associated with PM exposure, after adjusting gender, urban/rural status, spatial variation as well as age, period and cohort effect.

The relative risks of PC mortality related to 10 μg/m³ increase of PM_2.5 were 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 1.20) for all the population, 1.08 (1.05,1.13) for those aged 40-64 years, 1.21 (1.17,1.25) for those aged 65-84 years, 1.14 (1.10,1.18) for the male, 1.19 (1.14,1.24) for the female, 1.23 (1.16,1.30) for the urban population and 1.29 (1.22, 1.37) for the rural population.

Ambient PM_2.5 may raise the risk of mortality from PC, especially in older population. Pollution control policy should be further strengthened to reduce the health damages.