Pesticide durability and the evolution of resistance: A novel application of survival analysis

Arthropod pests are widely perceived to evolve resistance to insecticides at different rates. Although widespread "successful" species are assumed to evolve quickly and minor pests slowly, few studies have utilized published data on resistance events to test for differences among species. Using 532 records from the Arthropod Pesticide Resistance Database covering 20 species, we applied a survival analysis to model the number of generations from insecticide introduction to the first report of arthropod resistance, providing one of the most comprehensive analyses of this question to date. Our approach tested: 1) whether successful pests evolve resistance faster than close relatives, 2) whether species differ significantly in the time to demonstrate resistance, and 3) whether different insecticide classes differ in durability (length of time an insecticide is used before resistance arises).

We found that species differed significantly in the amount of time it took for resistance to be reported. Overall, the median duration between the introduction of an insecticide and the first report of resistance was 66 generations (95% c.i. 60-78 generations), and highly-resistant arthropods did not evolve resistance faster than their relatives. Insecticide durability did not differ by the mode of action or year of introduction.

Arthropod species significantly varied in how rapidly they evolve resistance to new insecticides, regardless of their chemistry. Visualization of the history of insecticide resistance provides information to be used for understanding how pesticide resistance evolved and how it can best be managed. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.