A predictive scoring system for insufficient liver hypertrophy after preoperative portal vein embolization

The factors which affect hypertrophy of the future liver remnant after portal vein embolization remain unclear. The aim of this study was to clarify the clinical factors affecting the hypertrophy rate after portal vein embolization and to develop a scoring system predicting insufficient liver hypertrophy.

The cases of a total of 152 patients who underwent portal vein embolization of the right portal branch between 2006 and 2016 were reviewed retrospectively. The score to predict insufficient (<25%) hypertrophy was established based on logistic regression analyses of the clinical parameters before portal vein embolization.

After portal vein embolization, the future liver remnant volume, expressed as the median (range), significantly increased from 364 (151-801) mL, 33% (18%-54%), to 451 (242-866) mL, 42% (26%-65%). The median hypertrophy rate was 24% (-5% to 96%). A preoperative predictive scoring system for insufficient liver hypertrophy was constructed using the following 3 factors: an initial future liver remnant volume ≥35% (2 points), alkaline phosphatase ≥450 IU/dL (1 point), and cholinesterase <220 mg/dL (1 point). The constructed scoring system indicated the proportion of patients with insufficient liver hypertrophy (<25%) to be 6 out of 42 (14%) in the low-score group (0 points), 44 out of 77 (57%) in the medium-score group (1-2 points), and 30 out of 33 (91%) in the high-score group (3-4 points). The hypertrophy rate of future liver remnant was different among the 3 groups (low-score group, 38.9% [-2.4% to 81.4%]; medium-score group, 22.7% [-5.1% to 95.5%]; high-score group, 18.2% [2.4%-30.7%]) (P < .001).

The constructed scoring system was able to stratify patients before portal vein embolization according to the possibility of developing insufficient liver hypertrophy.