Preoperative prediction of a pathologic complete response of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma to neoadjuvant...

The accurate prediction of a pathologic complete response (ypT0N0M [LYM] 0 ypStage 0) before operation is essential for selecting appropriate strategies for treating esophageal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

We reviewed 130 consecutive patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who were evaluated preoperatively using upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, computed tomography, and ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and subsequently underwent esophagectomy. Our aim was to determine the diagnostic abilities of computed tomography, ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography, and endoscopy to predict preoperatively a pathologic complete response of the primary site of the locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and associated lymph nodes to trimodal neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Associations between clinical complete response (ycT0N0M [LYM] 0 ycStage 0) and pathologic complete response were investigated preoperatively.

Twenty-nine (22.3%) and 43 (33.1%) patients, respectively, achieved clinical complete response and pathologic complete response, which were associated (P=.001). The sensitivity and specificity, as well as the positive and negative predictive values of clinical complete response to define pathologic complete response were 39.5%, 86.2%, 58.6%, and 74.3%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses selected clinical complete response as the sole independent preoperative predictor of pathologic complete response (clinical complete responses versus non-clinical complete responses: odds ratio: 0.26, 95% confidence interval, 0.10-0.65, P=.004). Recurrence-free and overall survival (OS) rates were better in patients with than in those without clinical complete response (5-year recurrence-free and overall survival: 69.0% vs 41.4% and 75.9% vs 45.0%, respectively, both P=.02). Furthermore, clinical complete response was an independent preoperative predictor of recurrence-free survival (clinical complete response versus nonclinical complete response: hazard ratio: 2.20, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-4.45, P=.03).

Although pathologic complete response was predictable preoperatively to some extent, the accuracy was somewhat low. Considerable caution should be exercised when selecting the watch-and-wait approach with operation as needed and omitting planned operative intervention even for patients who achieve clinical complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.