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Identifying temporal patterns in patient disease trajectories using dynamic time warping: A population-based study.

Alexia Giannoula1, Alba Gutierrez-Sacristán1, Álex Bravo1

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This study introduces a new time-analysis framework to understand complex disease patterns in large populations. It groups patient disease histories by temporal patterns, aiding in disease prediction.

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Area of Science:

  • Computational epidemiology
  • Health informatics
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Assessing comorbidities in population studies typically ignores or simplifies the temporal aspect of disease progression.
  • Understanding the sequence and timing of diseases is vital for identifying complex comorbidity patterns beyond simple associations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present a novel time-analysis framework for large-scale comorbidity studies.
  • To analyze temporal disease trajectories and group them based on shared patterns.
  • To lay the groundwork for a disease prediction system.

Main Methods:

  • Representing patient disease histories as time sequences of ordered diagnoses.
  • Identifying statistically significant pairwise disease associations and assessing their temporal directionality.
  • Applying an unsupervised clustering algorithm based on Dynamic Time Warping to common disease trajectories.

Main Results:

  • A novel framework for analyzing temporal comorbidity patterns was developed.
  • Disease trajectories were clustered based on shared temporal sequences.
  • The methodology allows for a more nuanced understanding of disease progression over time.

Conclusions:

  • Temporal analysis of disease histories provides deeper insights into comorbidity patterns.
  • The proposed framework can group complex disease trajectories effectively.
  • This approach has potential applications in developing predictive health systems.