Clinical Applications of Stochastic Dynamic Models of the Brain, Part I: A Primer

Biological phenomena arise through interactions between an organism's intrinsic dynamics and stochastic forces-random fluctuations due to external inputs, thermal energy, or other exogenous influences. Dynamic processes in the brain derive from neurophysiology and anatomical connectivity; stochastic effects arise through sensory fluctuations, brainstem discharges, and random microscopic states such as thermal noise. The dynamic evolution of systems composed of both dynamic and random effects can be studied with stochastic dynamic models (SDMs). This article, Part I of a two-part series, offers a primer of SDMs and their application to large-scale neural systems in health and disease. The companion article, Part II, reviews the application of SDMs to brain disorders. SDMs generate a distribution of dynamic states, which (we argue) represent ideal candidates for modeling how the brain represents states of the world. When augmented with variational methods for model inversion, SDMs represent a powerful means of inferring neuronal dynamics from functional neuroimaging data in health and disease. Together with deeper theoretical considerations, this work suggests that SDMs will play a unique and influential role in computational psychiatry, unifying empirical observations with models of perception and behavior.