Population well-being and electoral shifts

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Political Science
• Sociology

Background:

• Population wellbeing, encompassing mental, physical, and emotional health, is a recognized indicator of community vitality.
• Previous research has primarily focused on socioeconomic factors to explain electoral shifts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate if community wellbeing measures and their changes predict electoral shifts in the 2016 US presidential election.
• To compare the predictive power of wellbeing changes versus income changes on voting patterns.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of community-level wellbeing data and its change from 2012.
• Correlation of wellbeing trends with electoral changes, specifically shifts away from the incumbent party.
• Comparison with changes in income as a potential determinant of voting shifts.

Main Results:

• Areas exhibiting the most significant shifts away from the incumbent party demonstrated lower overall wellbeing.
• These same areas also experienced more substantial declines in wellbeing compared to areas with stable voting patterns.
• Changes in income levels did not show a significant relationship with voting shifts.

Conclusions:

• Community wellbeing, particularly its decline, serves as a significant predictor of electoral changes.
• Wellbeing metrics may offer greater insight into voting behavior than traditional economic indicators like income.
• This study highlights the potential of public health data in understanding political dynamics.