How many sightings to model rare marine species distributions

Despite large efforts, datasets with few sightings are often available for rare species of marine megafauna that typically live at low densities. This paucity of data makes modelling the habitat of these taxa particularly challenging. We tested the predictive performance of different types of species distribution models fitted to decreasing numbers of sightings. Generalised additive models (GAMs) with three different residual distributions and the presence only model MaxEnt were tested on two megafauna case studies differing in both the number of sightings and ecological niches. From a dolphin (277 sightings) and an auk (1,455 sightings) datasets, we simulated rarity with a sighting thinning protocol by random sampling (without replacement) of a decreasing fraction of sightings. Better prediction of the distribution of a rarely sighted species occupying a narrow habitat (auk dataset) was expected compared to the distribution of a rarely sighted species occupying a broad habitat (dolphin dataset). We used the original datasets to set up a baseline model and fitted additional models on fewer sightings but keeping effort constant. Model predictive performance was assessed with mean squared error and area under the curve. Predictions provided by the models fitted to the thinned-out datasets were better than a homogeneous spatial distribution down to a threshold of approximately 30 sightings for a GAM with a Tweedie distribution and approximately 130 sightings for the other models. Thinning the sighting data for the taxon with narrower habitats seemed to be less detrimental to model predictive performance than for the broader habitat taxon. To generate reliable habitat modelling predictions for rarely sighted marine predators, our results suggest (1) using GAMs with a Tweedie distribution with presence-absence data and (2) implementing, as a conservative empirical measure, at least 50 sightings in the models.