[Prediction of the activity of rabies foci based on biotic and climatic factors]

Investigations carried out in Voronezh Province have shown that the activity of the foci of rabies is poorly related to the changes in the fox population. For the prognostication of the situation to be expected, good promise is held in the use of such data as the size of the population of murine rodents and the climatic conditions of the autumn and winter period. Rises in rabies morbidity are observed following an increase in the number of murine rodents (26% and higher) in autumn and a sharp decrease in their number by the spring of the epizootic year, and also if in the preceding year autumn began early and temperatures in winter and spring were above the average level, flood came quickly and water levels were low. It is expedient to use these regularities for the short-term prognosis of the epidemiological situation.