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Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates
Dominique Berteaux1, Marylène Ricard2, Martin-Hugues St-Laurent3
1Canada Research Chair on Northern Biodiversity, Centre for Northern Studies and Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300 allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada. dominique_berteaux@uqar.ca.
Scientific Reports
|March 17, 2018
Summary
Climate change may boost biodiversity in northern regions, increasing species richness and protected area effectiveness. This study predicts significant species turnover but highlights northern protected areas as crucial refuges for climate-tracking species.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Climate Change Science
Background:
- Climate change poses global biodiversity threats, but northern regions may experience increased biodiversity due to warming.
- The Northern Biodiversity Paradox suggests temperature-limited species may thrive in warming northern latitudes.
- Assessing climate change impacts on northern protected areas is crucial for conservation planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity within a large network of northern protected areas in Quebec, Canada.
- To analyze changes in species richness, turnover, and range representation within protected areas under future climate scenarios.
- To determine the future role of northern protected areas as refuges for species migrating due to climate change.
Main Methods:
- Ecological niche modeling was employed to predict changes in the occurrence probability of 529 species.
- The study assessed impacts on species gain, loss, turnover, richness, protected area representativity, and species range extent.
- Analysis covered a network of 1,749 protected areas across over 600,000 km² in Quebec, Canada.
Main Results:
- A significant species turnover is predicted, with up to 49% of the protected land area potentially experiencing over 80% turnover.
- Increases in regional species richness and the representativity of protected areas are projected.
- Protected areas are expected to offer enhanced protection for species ranges shifting northward.
Conclusions:
- Northern protected areas are projected to become vital refuges for species adapting to northward climate shifts.
- Despite significant species turnover, the overall biodiversity and protective capacity of these northern areas are expected to increase.
- This research provides a detailed assessment of climate change effects on a northern protected area network, informing future conservation strategies.
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