Extremely rare collapse and build-up of turbulence in stochastic models of transitional wall flows

This paper presents a numerical and theoretical study of multistability in two stochastic models of transitional wall flows. An algorithm dedicated to the computation of rare events is adapted on these two stochastic models. The main focus is placed on a stochastic partial differential equation model proposed by Barkley. Three types of events are computed in a systematic and reproducible manner: (i) the collapse of isolated puffs and domains initially containing their steady turbulent fraction; (ii) the puff splitting; (iii) the build-up of turbulence from the laminar base flow under a noise perturbation of vanishing variance. For build-up events, an extreme realization of the vanishing variance noise pushes the state from the laminar base flow to the most probable germ of turbulence which in turn develops into a full blown puff. For collapse events, the Reynolds number and length ranges of the two regimes of collapse of laminar-turbulent pipes, independent collapse or global collapse of puffs, is determined. The mean first passage time before each event is then systematically computed as a function of the Reynolds number r and pipe length L in the laminar-turbulent coexistence range of Reynolds number. In the case of isolated puffs, the faster-than-linear growth with Reynolds number of the logarithm of mean first passage time T before collapse is separated in two. One finds that ln(T)=A_{p}r-B_{p}, with A_{p} and B_{p} positive. Moreover, A_{p} and B_{p} are affine in the spatial integral of turbulence intensity of the puff, with the same slope. In the case of pipes initially containing the steady turbulent fraction, the length L and Reynolds number r dependence of the mean first passage time T before collapse is also separated. The author finds that T≍exp[L(Ar-B)] with A and B positive. The length and Reynolds number dependence of T are then discussed in view of the large deviations theoretical approaches of the study of mean first passage times and multistability, where ln(T) in the limit of small variance noise is studied. Two points of view, local noise of small variance and large length, can be used to discuss the exponential dependence in L of T. In particular, it is shown how a T≍exp[L(A^{'}R-B^{'})] can be derived in a conceptual two degrees of freedom model of a transitional wall flow proposed by Dauchot and Manneville. This is done by identifying a quasipotential in low variance noise, large length limit. This pinpoints the physical effects controlling collapse and build-up trajectories and corresponding passage times with an emphasis on the saddle points between laminar and turbulent states. This analytical analysis also shows that these effects lead to the asymmetric probability density function of kinetic energy of turbulence.