The relation between global palm distribution and climate

Fossil palms provide qualitative evidence of (sub-) tropical conditions and frost-free winters in the geological past, including modern cold climate regions (e.g., boreal, or polar climates). The freeze intolerance of palms varies across different organs and life stages, with seedlings in particular less tolerant of sub-zero temperatures than adult plants, limiting successful establishment of populations while permitting adult palms to survive in cultivation outside their natural ranges. Quantitatively, palms indicate minimum cold month mean temperature (CMMT) at 2-8 °C in palaeoclimate reconstructions. These data have accentuated model-proxy mismatches for high latitudes during Paleogene hyperthermals when palms expanded poleward in both hemispheres. We constructed a manually filtered dataset of >20,000 georeferenced Arecaceae records, by eliminating cultivars. Statistically derived mean annual temperature, mean annual temperature range, and CMMT thresholds for the Arecaceae and lower rank subfamilies and tribes reveal large differences in temperature sensitivity depending on lower taxonomic classification. Cold tolerant tribes such as the Trachycarpeae produce thresholds as low as CMMT ≥ 2.2 °C. However, within the palm family, CMMT < 5 °C is anomalous. Moreover, palm expansion into temperate biomes is likely a post-Palaeogene event. We recognize a CMMT ≥ 5.2 °C threshold for the palm family, unless a lower taxonomic rank can be assigned.