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Is structural sensitivity a problem of oversimplified biological models? Insights from nested Dynamic Energy Budget
Clement Aldebert1, Bob W Kooi2, David Nerini3
1Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Aix-Marseille University, Toulon University, CNRS/INSU,IRD, MIO, UM 110, Marseille, Cedex 09 13288, France; University of Zurich, Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, Winterthurerstrasse 190, Zurich 8057, Switzerland.
Journal of Theoretical Biology
|March 19, 2018
Summary
Ecological models are less sensitive to structural choices when including resource dynamics and individual maintenance. Simplifying models, like using the logistic growth equation, increases prediction uncertainty.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Systems Biology
Background:
- Mathematical models are crucial for ecological predictions, but parameter choices introduce uncertainty.
- Structural sensitivity analysis examines how mathematical function choices for processes like predation impact model outcomes.
- Previous studies on structural sensitivity were limited to simple theoretical models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate if structural sensitivity is an issue inherent to oversimplified ecological models.
- To determine if including specific ecological processes reduces structural sensitivity in predator-prey models.
Main Methods:
- Utilized predator-prey models simulating chemostat experiments.
- Compared model sensitivity to functional response choices under different model complexities.
- Incorporated mass balance resource dynamics and individual maintenance into model structures.
Main Results:
- Predator-prey models were less structurally sensitive to functional response choices when mass balance resource dynamics and individual maintenance were included.
- Oversimplified models, such as those using the logistic growth equation, exhibited higher structural sensitivity.
- Neglecting these processes leads to less accurate ecological system descriptions and increased prediction uncertainty.
Conclusions:
- Structural sensitivity is a significant concern in oversimplified ecological models.
- Including mass balance resource dynamics and individual maintenance enhances model robustness and reduces prediction uncertainty.
- Accurate ecological modeling requires incorporating fundamental processes to avoid misleading predictions.
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