A new prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after curative hepatectomy

We previously reported the effectiveness of the product of tumor number and size (NxS factor) for the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients following hepatectomy. The present study aimed to propose a new score based on the NxS factor to predict HCC recurrence following hepatectomy. A total of 406 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine were retrospectively analyzed to develop the new score. Among clinicopathological factors, including the NxS factor, the marker subset that achieved the best performance for prediction of early recurrence was assessed, and a prognostic model for HCC recurrence after curative hepatectomy (REACH) was developed. As the validation set, 425 patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine and Shimonoseki Medical Center were analyzed, and the prognostic ability of the REACH score was compared with that of well-known staging systems. Following analysis, the REACH score was constructed using six covariates (NxS factor, microscopic hepatic vein invasion, differentiation, serum albumin, platelet count and indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min). In the validation set, the REACH score predicted early recurrence in 73 of 81 samples, with a sensitivity of 89% and a specificity of 58%. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve of the REACH score was 0.78 and 0.74, respectively, for 1- and 2-year recurrence after hepatectomy; each AUC was higher than that of any of the other staging systems. Survival analysis indicated the REACH score had the best predictive value in disease-free and overall survival. The present findings demonstrated that the REACH score may be used to classify patients with HCC into high- and low-risk of recurrence, and to predict subsequent survival following hepatic resection.