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Solar cyclic variability can modulate winter Arctic climate.

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  • 1University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK. I.Roy@exeter.ac.uk.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The eleven-year solar cycle influences Arctic climate. Lower solar sunspot numbers correlate with Arctic warming across the atmosphere, while higher numbers show the opposite effect.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Solar-Atmospheric Physics
  • Arctic Meteorology

Background:

  • The eleven-year solar cycle is a known driver of space weather.
  • Its influence on Earth's lower atmosphere and climate, particularly the Arctic, requires further elucidation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of the solar cycle on Arctic climate dynamics between 1979 and 2016.
  • To identify the atmospheric pathways and mechanisms through which solar variability modulates Arctic conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of winter solar sunspot number (SSN) data.
  • Application of statistical techniques: Compositing, Multiple Linear Regression, and Correlation.
  • Examination of atmospheric variables including temperature, zonal wind, and geopotential height.

Main Results:

  • A significant correlation was found between SSN and Arctic temperature anomalies extending from the troposphere to the stratosphere.
  • Minimum SSN years were associated with Arctic warming, easterly zonal wind anomalies, and positive geopotential height anomalies.
  • Maximum SSN years showed inverse patterns. A contrasting solar signature was observed on Eurasian snow cover.

Conclusions:

  • The solar cycle exerts a discernible modulating influence on the winter Arctic climate, mediated by the Arctic Oscillation.
  • Stratospheric pathways are key mechanisms for solar cycle influence on Arctic climate.
  • Weaker recent solar cycles may contribute to Arctic ice reduction and Eurasian snow growth.