Alternative outcomes create biased expectations regarding the received outcome: Evidence from event-related...

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Neuroscience
• Decision Making
• Neuroeconomics

Background:

• Individuals often compare outcomes of chosen and unchosen options after decisions.
• This outcome comparison influences self-evaluation and is modulated by decision responsibility.
• Electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison remain underexplored.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison using feedback-related negativity (FRN) and P3 components.
• To examine how the alternative outcome influences the evaluation of the received outcome.
• To test the hypothesis of an 'Alternative Omen Effect' where alternative outcomes bias expectations.

Main Methods:

• Two studies involving participants choosing between options with monetary gains or losses.
• Electrophysiological recordings (EEG) to measure FRN and P3.
• Behavioral experiments to confirm the Alternative Omen Effect.

Main Results:

• FRN and P3 amplitudes were sensitive to the valence of the received outcome (gain vs. loss).
• Contrary to predictions, FRN and P3 were more positive for a gain in the alternative outcome, not a loss.
• Behavioral experiments confirmed an illusory negative correlation between uncorrelated outcomes (Alternative Omen Effect).

Conclusions:

• Electrophysiological responses (FRN, P3) reflect outcome comparison but are influenced by biased expectations.
• The Alternative Omen Effect suggests individuals perceive a predictive relationship between alternative and received outcomes, even when none exists.
• Future research should differentiate expectation-based effects from pure outcome comparison.