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Can We Predict Which Adolescents Will Engage in Outpatient Substance Abuse Treatment?
Grant Ig Christie1, Lynda M Bavin1, Sophie Wills1
1Department of Psychological Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Abstract:
Understanding which adolescents remain in substance abuse treatment may facilitate the development of effective strategies for enhancing engagement and retention. Using clinical service data from a large naturalistic sample of adolescents, we examined whether client characteristics predict retention in outpatient alcohol and other drug (AOD) treatment. χ2 tests and multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to examine relationships between sociodemographic and substance use variables and clinic attendance. Client characteristics of ethnicity, sex, age, living situation (whether living with or away from family), and substance use severity were associated with retention in community AOD treatment. Pacific Island youth, females, 13- to 15-year olds, clients living with family, and clients with more severe substance use were generally more likely to be "engaged" with the service (ie, attended 4+ sessions) than their European and Maori, male, 16- to 19-year-old, and living away from home counterparts. These findings may inform more targeted engagement strategies in the future.
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Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.

