Pharmacogenetics of vitamin K antagonists and bleeding risk prediction in atrial fibrillation

Polymorphisms in the vitamin K epoxide reductase complex 1 (VKORC1) and cytochrome P450 2C9 (CYP2C9) genes increase the bleeding risk in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Here, we aimed to investigate whether VKORC1 and CYP2C9 polymorphisms improved the predictive performance for major bleeding using the HAS-BLED score.

We recruited 652 consecutive AF patients stable on vitamin K antagonist (INR 2.0-3.0) during at least the previous 6 months. A baseline venous blood sample was obtained for DNA extraction. We gave an extra point to the HAS-BLED score if the patient was a simultaneous carrier of the VKORC1 and CYP2C9 polymorphisms related to bleeding, and we called this modified score "GEN|HAS-BLED." During a median follow-up of 7.6 years (IQR 5.6-8.0), all major bleeding events were recorded.

During follow-up, 106 (16.2%) patients experienced a major bleeding (2.81%/y; 42 intracranial haemorrhages and 44 gastrointestinal bleeding) and 24 (3.7%) died from major bleeding (0.48%/y). Cox regression analyses demonstrated a significant association between HAS-BLED or GEN|HAS-BLED and major bleeds, both as continuous or categorical scores. Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows that original HAS-BLED clinical score had better predictive ability than GEN|HAS-BLED (0.660, 95% CI 0.622-0.696 vs 0.645, 95% CI 0.607-0.682; P = .030). Discrimination and reclassification analyses showed that GEN|HAS-BLED did not improve sensitivity compared with the original score and even showed significant negative reclassification.

Adding pharmacogenetic factors (ie polymorphisms of the VKORC1 and CYP2C9 genes) to the HAS-BLED score does not improve the prediction or discrimination performance for major bleeding.