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Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

Salem S Gharbia1, Trevor Smullen2, Laurence Gill2

  • 1Department of Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin (UCD), Dublin, Ireland.

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Climate change will significantly increase potential evapotranspiration rates in large catchments. This study models future changes using validated algorithms, impacting water balance and management strategies.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology and Climate Science
  • Environmental Modeling
  • Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

  • Evapotranspiration is a key process linking Earth's systems.
  • Understanding its response to climate change is crucial for water resource management.
  • Fine-scale modeling of evapotranspiration on a catchment scale is needed.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model and project spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration at a fine resolution on a large catchment scale under climate change.
  • To evaluate the impact of future climate change scenarios on potential evapotranspiration rates and catchment water balance.
  • To address the gap in fine-scale, GIS-based modeling of evapotranspiration for large catchments.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic selection and validation of six potential evapotranspiration algorithms using long-term monthly data for the Shannon River catchment (50m² cell size).
  • Application of the best-validated algorithm to climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for 2020, 2050, and 2080 under various Representative Concentration Pathways.
  • Seasonal comparison of projected results with baseline data to assess climate change impacts on potential evapotranspiration and water balance.

Main Results:

  • All simulated climate change scenarios predict a significant increase in potential evapotranspiration rates for all future time intervals.
  • The projected increases in potential evapotranspiration will substantially affect the dynamical water balance of the catchment.
  • The study demonstrates a transferable method for designing GIS-based algorithms for simulating distributed potential evapotranspiration.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change scenarios indicate a significant impact on future potential evapotranspiration rates.
  • Increased potential evapotranspiration will alter the dynamical catchment water balance, necessitating adaptive management strategies.
  • Fine-scale, GIS-based modeling provides crucial data for assessing and managing water resources in large catchments.