Risk factors for unfavourable treatment outcome among new smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases in China

Setting: Three projects of the Fund for Innovative DOTS Expansion through Local Initiatives to Stop TB. Objectives: To assess unfavourable treatment outcomes (UTOs), including failure, died, loss to follow-up (LTFU), transferred out and unknown outcome, and to identify risk factors associated with UTOs. Design: This was a cross-sectional study using routine programme data. Results: Of 30 277 new smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) patients, 4261 (14.1%) had UTOs: 2048 (6.8%) LTFU, 1418 (4.7%) transferred out, 390 (1.3%) died, 340 (1.1%) failed and 65 (0.2%) had an unknown outcome. Risk factors for LTFU (including LTFU, transfer out and unknown outcome) were residing in Anhui, age > 55 years, service delay > 10 days, patient delay < 30 days, directly observed treatment (DOT) provided by a family member or others and unknown DOT provider. The outcome of 'died' was associated with residing in Shaanxi, age > 55 years, male sex, patient delay > 30 days and unknown DOT provider. 'Failed' was associated with having unlimited access to health services, patient delay of >30 days and unknown DOT provider. Conclusion: This study highlights the predominance of lost patients among UTOs. Patients with family members or other non-medical DOT providers or unknown DOT providers had a high risk of a UTO. There is an urgent need to address these service-related factors.