Distinguishing Among Evolutionary Forces Acting on Genome-Wide Base Composition: Computer Simulation Analysis of...

Inferred ancestral nucleotide states are increasingly employed in analyses of within- and between -species genome variation. Although numerous studies have focused on ancestral inference among distantly related lineages, approaches to infer ancestral states in polymorphism data have received less attention. Recently developed approaches that employ complex transition matrices allow us to infer ancestral nucleotide sequence in various evolutionary scenarios of base composition. However, the requirement of a single gene tree to calculate a likelihood is an important limitation for conducting ancestral inference using within-species variation in recombining genomes. To resolve this problem, and to extend the applicability of ancestral inference in studies of base composition evolution, we first evaluate three previously proposed methods to infer ancestral nucleotide sequences among within- and between-species sequence variation data. The methods employ a single allele, bifurcating tree, or a star tree for within-species variation data. Using simulated nucleotide sequences, we employ ancestral inference to infer fixations and polymorphisms. We find that all three methods show biased inference. We modify the bifurcating tree method to include weights to adjust for an expected site frequency spectrum, "bifurcating tree with weighting" (BTW). Our simulation analysis show that the BTW method can substantially improve the reliability and robustness of ancestral inference in a range of scenarios that include non-neutral and/or non-stationary base composition evolution.